College Affirmative Action and Students' Long-Term Outcomes: A Matter of the Dose

This paper studies how exposure to affirmative action in college shapes students’ long-term outcomes. Using rich administrative data from a selective university in China, we find that being admitted through the affirmative action program has positive effects on minority students’ academic performance during college but reduces their labor market success after graduation. These mixed results are driven by the intensity of affirmative action: moderate levels improve both academic and labor market outcomes, while excessive preferential treatment leads to better college performance but worse post-college outcomes. We provide evidence consistent with two mechanisms: skill mismatch and stigma. Our findings highlight the importance of calibrating the 'dose' of affirmative action policies to maximize their long-term benefits.