【创源大讲堂】Analysts Under Litigation: Personal Legal Exposure and Forecast Performance

This study examines whether and how personal litigation affects financial analysts’ earnings forecast performance. Using a sample of Chinese analysts matched with individual-level litigation records, we find that analysts involved in litigation event produce significantly less accurate forecasts. A dynamic difference-in-differences design shows no pre-trends, while accuracy declines during litigation and persists thereafter. The effect is stronger for cases with longer duration, greater complexity, and higher monetary claims, as well as for analysts with heavier workloads, but is weaker in team-based settings and for dismissed cases. Mechanism tests indicate that litigated analysts conduct fewer site visits and issue fewer forecast revisions, while relying more on herding and less on bold forecasts. Finally, stock price reactions to forecast revisions are weaker when the issuing analysts are involved in litigation, indicating reduced informativeness, and this attenuation is particularly pronounced for herding forecasts. At the firm level, stocks covered by a greater number of litigation-exposed analysts exhibit higher price synchronicity. 刘嘉，英国管理学院院士、朴茨茅斯大学会计与金融学教授、创新与可持续金融中心主任，英国伯明翰大学经济学博士，获英国会计与金融学会终身成就奖，先后任职利兹大学、谢菲尔德大学。其研究覆盖公司金融、行为金融、金融科技、大数据、会计披露、可持续金融等交叉领域，累计发表 90 余篇国际期刊论文，含 16 篇 ABS-4、FT50 期刊，并出版关于公司治理、可持续发展与金融决策相关专著，多次斩获欧美多国知名学术机构最佳论文奖，研究成果受The Conversation、纳斯达克等主流媒体关注报道。她现任英国会计与金融协会主席、英国管理学院执委、英国 Co-Op Bank政府项目顾问；曾任中欧公共行政项目专家，为国际清算银行、金融稳定委员会、世界银行等机构提供咨询。兼任多本期刊主编、副主编与编委，其中包括:International Journal of Finance and Economics主编 (ABS 3)，British Journal of Management (ABS 4)、International Review of Financial Analysis (ABS 3)和British Accounting Review (ABS 3)副主编等。牵头筹办 50 余场国际学术会议，持续推动领域科研创新。