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邱斌: The Trumpian Tariff and the Third-country Effect
- 来源：
- 学校官网
- 收录时间：
- 2025-01-19 13:28:25
- 时间：
- 2025-01-11 09:50:00
- 地点：
- 翡翠湖校区翡翠科教楼B1005室
- 报告人：
- 邱斌
- 学校：
- -/-
- 关键词：
- Armington model, elasticity of substitution, trade conflicts, US-China, tariffs, third-country effect
- 简介：
- We revisit the Armington model developed by Feenstra et al. (2018) that allows the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties to be different from that between alternative foreign varieties. We develop gravity-based estimators to recover these elasticities from bilateral trade and tariff data. Our estimates suggest that the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties is lower than the one between alternative foreign varieties. We apply the model to quantify the global consequences of the US-China trade conflicts starting at 2018. Counterfactual analysis suggests that imposing identical elasticity of substitution across all varieties would lead to (i) considerable underestimation of the third-country welfare gains from the US-China tariff conflicts, and (ii) overestimation of the noncooperative tariffs between the U.S. and China.
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报告介绍：
报告简介：We revisit the Armington model developed by Feenstra et al. (2018) that allows the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties to be different from that between alternative foreign varieties. We develop gravity-based estimators to recover these elasticities from bilateral trade and tariff data. Our estimates suggest that the elasticity of substitution between the domestic and foreign varieties is lower than the one between alternative foreign varieties. We apply the model to quantify the global consequences of the US-China trade conflicts starting at 2018. Counterfactual analysis suggests that imposing identical elasticity of substitution across all varieties would lead to (i) considerable underestimation of the third-country welfare gains from the US-China tariff conflicts, and (ii) overestimation of the noncooperative tariffs between the U.S. and China.
报告人介绍：
邱斌，博士，东南大学特聘教授，二级教授，经济管理学院博士生导师，中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所博士后。美国哥伦比亚大学访问学者（2010-2011），马里兰大学访问学者（2003），澳大利亚西澳大学访问学者（2018），英国伦敦大学学院（UCL）访问学者（2024）。中国世界经济学会常务理事，中国美国经济学会副秘书长。
